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New Pathways into Higher Education and the Working World? Scanning the Post-COVID Challenges and Possibilities for Access to Colleges and Careers in the US (Part 2) 

What can be done to reduce some of the barriers that limit students’ post-high school opportunities? In the second part of this two-part series, RJ Wicks scans recent news and research from the US to survey some of the “micro-innovations” that may help to expand the pathways into college and productive careers. The first part of this scan reviewed the current conditions for students in the US as they try to find their way into college and the workforce. 

COVID-19 accelerated longstanding challenges: college enrollment dropped especially at community colleges; financial insecurity forced some students to pause or leave school; equity gaps widened; and reports continue to suggest that many students are unprepared for life after high school. Yet educators are also developing a host of innovative practices and programs that are helping to address these and other issues. Initiatives such as guaranteed admissions, promise programs, career and technical education (CTE), dual enrollment offerings, early college high schools, and work-based learning are demonstrating the potential to create new and smoother pathways into post-secondary academic and professional environments 

Guaranteed Admissions Programs 

Guaranteed admissions programs seek to make college admissions more automatic and less selective by reaching out to students who meet admissions criteria and offering them a place. For example, a number of higher education institutions in Michigan formed the Michigan Assured Admission Pact (MAAP), which provides guaranteed admission to students graduating from a Michigan high school if they have earned a cumulative high school grade point average of 3.0 or above. Related state programs include Admit UtahWashington State’s Guaranteed Admissions Program, University of Texas Top 10% Rule, Direct Admission Minnesota, and SUNY’s Top 10% Promise. 

Promise Programs

Promise programs are tuition-assistance initiatives designed to increase access to higher education, particularly for low-income and underrepresented students. These programs often eliminate financial barriers by covering remaining tuition costs after other financial aid has been applied, effectively making college more accessible and affordable. As of 2023, there are over 400 promise programs across the United States with research-to- date suggesting that the most effective offer free or reduced-cost college tuition along with structured advising, explicit communication and messaging, and outreach. According to the National Conference of State Legislatures, all 50 states have at least one local or statewide program. Exhibiting a variety of different approaches, promise programs include “last-dollar” programs that fill in tuition gaps left after other aid has been used, as well as “first-dollar” programs that provide tuition support upfront. In some cases, in addition to covering tuition costs, some programs provide additional support for the many other expenses that can make completing college difficult. 

A study of 33 public community college promise programs across the U.S. found that these initiatives significantly increased enrollment among first-time, full-time students, with the largest gains seen among Black, Hispanic, and female students. According to that same study, initial first-time enrollment rose by 47% for Black men and 51% for Black women, while enrollment for Hispanic men and women increased by 40% and 52%, respectively.

  • Kalamazoo Promise is a first-dollar, place-based scholarship that covers up to 100% of tuition at any public—and select private—college or university in Michigan for students who graduate from Kalamazoo Public Schools. The program requires continuous enrollment in the district since at least ninth grade. Since its launch, it has led to a 14-percentage point increase in college enrollment overall and a 34-point increase for four-year college enrollment. Students in the program attempt more college credits—15% more in the first two years—and are more likely to complete a degree: six years after high school, credential attainment rose from 36% to 48%, driven largely by bachelor’s degrees. The program’s positive impacts were especially significant for low-income, nonwhite students, and women. Economically, the Promise has yielded an estimated 11% internal rate of return in lifetime earnings.
  • Tennessee Promise offers last-dollar scholarships for community and technical colleges that covers remaining tuition costs after federal and state financial aid is applied. In addition, the program requires students to participate in mentoring initiatives to 1) help them with completion of financial aid forms (FAFSA); 2) guide them through the college application process; and 3) provide ongoing support once enrolled. To foster a culture of accountability and civic engagement, students must complete eight hours of community service each semester and maintain a minimum GPA of 2.0.  The program contributed to a 11.4% increase in first-time freshmen enrollment at community colleges in Tennessee in its inaugural year. The program also helped increase retention rates and improve college completion.  Over 125,000 students benefited from the program in its first decade.
Source: Brookings

Early College and Dual Enrollment Pathways

Dual enrollment and early college high school programs offer high school students unique opportunities to earn college credits, reducing the time and cost required to attain a degree. While both initiatives aim to improve access to higher education, they differ in structure and outcomes. Dual enrollment allows students to take college-level courses alongside their high school curriculum. In contrast, early college high schools are structured programs where students can earn both a high school diploma and up to two years of college credit, often on a college campus and with integrated support systems. A study by the American Institutes for Research found that 84% of early college students enrolled in college after high school graduation, compared to 77% of their peers. Additionally, 45% of early college students earned a college degree within six years, compared to 34% of the control group. 

By getting students into college-level coursework before graduation, these programs aim to help students build momentum and save money. They also provide what can be called “stacked supports” across sectors. In the process, they intend to break down silos and align expectations across K-12, higher ed, and workforce systems. Some studies point to specific benefits for students in these programs, including increased college enrollment and completion rates, particularly among underrepresented groups. 

  • P-TECH (Pathways in Technology Early College High School) provides a six-year program where students earn both a high school diploma and a no-cost associate degree, all while working in “real world” placements in partnerships with companies like IBM. Launched in 2011 in Brooklyn, New York, through a collaboration between IBM, the New York City Department of Education, and the City University of New York, P-TECH provides a single high school program where students can take college-level coursework and build technical skills and receive industry mentorship in industries such as health IT and energy technology at the same time. In 2023, one evaluation of the model found that, seven years after entering high school, students in New York City’s P-TECH 9-14 program were 5 percentage points more likely to earn an associate’s degree — results driven particularly by young men, 13% of whom completed a degree compared to just 3% of their peers in other NYC high schools. After a 2014 visit by the Australian Prime Minister, Australia opened two P-TECH schools and since then the P-TECH network has grown to include 300 schools in 26 countries. 
P-TECH Six-Year Model
  • Boston Public Schools’ $38M Healthcare Career Training Expansion strives to build career pipelines in critical fields by embedding healthcare education directly into the high school experience. Students can begin focusing on a healthcare specialty as early as 10th grade and participate in hands-on training, job shadowing, and simulation labs. The initiative includes: 
    • Specialized vocational academies tailored to healthcare careers; 
    • Dual enrollment opportunities that allow students to earn college credit;
    • Paid summer internships at leading hospital systems like Mass General Brigham. 
    • Boston’s program is part of a broader $250 million Bloomberg initiative across ten major U.S. cities. 

Key Micro-innovations helping get students into and through college/career pathways 

Although the promise programs and dual enrollment and early college programs often strive to provide comprehensive support, they also encompass some seemingly small but strategic design choices that can be implemented on their own or in concert with other innovations.  

  • Mandatory mentorship and coaching. A number of Promise Programs assign trained mentors or success coaches to ensure students receive personal guidance—not just information. For example, Detroit Promise pairs each student with a full-time Campus Success Coach who provides personalized support, connects them to campus resources, and helps them overcome common barriers to persistence. This human connection helps demystify systems and boosts retention.
  • Just-in-time financial support. For many students, non-tuition costs – even a few hundred dollars – can serve as major barriers to completing courses and degrees. In anticipation of these financial burdens and to remove barriers before students hit a crisis point some promise programs, like CUNY ASAP, provide textbook and transport subsidies. Georgia State University’s Panther Retention Grants provides small amounts of financial support (“micro-grants”) to students with outstanding balances that would otherwise prevent them from registering for classes. 
  • Proactive communication and “nudges.” MATC’s FAFSA workshops and Admit Utah’s centralized digital tools make complex processes easier to understand, especially for first-gen or low-income students who may lack application support at home or school.
  • Using technology to support the college application process. Admit Utah uses technology to close “guidance gaps,” recognizing many high school students may not have access to counselors or college guidance. To do so, Admit Utah provides a centralized online platform where students can explore college options, learn about scholarships and financial aid, and use AI-powered tools to navigate the application process. 
  • Contextualized career learning. Boston’s healthcare pathways and P-TECH embed industry-aligned experiences – job shadowing, internships, and certifications – within the high school curriculum, helping students see the relevance of their education and build employable skills early.
  • Clear, student-friendly messaging. MATC’s “Free Tuition” campaign doesn’t just market affordability – it shapes perceptions and expectations about who belongs in college, often reaching students who wouldn’t have otherwise applied.

Acknowledging the challenges and continuing to expand the options 

As momentum builds around some of these new pathways into post-secondary success, challenges remain. Despite its growing popularity, access to dual enrollment remains uneven. Black and Hispanic students, English learners, and students with disabilities are consistently underrepresented. Key barriers include lack of funding, which shifts costs like tuition and textbooks onto students; limited access in schools serving low-income communities; inadequate advising; and a shortage of qualified instructors—often due to strict credential requirements for teaching college-level courses in high schools. These gaps limit who benefits from dual enrollment and highlight the need for targeted support and structural investment. 

The popularity of free college programs can also quickly overwhelm campuses if they can’t keep up with the demands for more faculty, advisors, facilities, and other resources. MassEducate, for example, covers the full cost of tuition for eligible students at any of the state’s 15 community colleges and even provides allowances for some students who need help paying for books, supplies and other costs. Launched in the fall of 2024, the program already contributed to a 14% rise in community college enrollment, with some campuses reporting enrollment increases of almost a third in one year. Under these conditions, even program advocates are worried that students, particularly first generation college students, will drop out if hiring and support for faculty does not keep pace. 

Furthermore, scaling does not always lead to success. For instance, Washington State’s efforts to replace high school exit exams with multiple graduation pathways encountered a number of implementation challenges. In 2023, after the changes were made, one in five seniors had no graduation pathway at all, and students in smaller or rural schools often lacked access to robust options. Some were funneled into lower-wage career tracks or military pathways by default, raising concerns about limited opportunity, inadequate guidance, and uneven access across schools and student populations.  At the same time, despite the challenges, states are continuing to try to increase the options and scale them to as many students as possible. For instance, Colorado, Delaware, and Indiana are expanding career-focused high school experiences. Colorado’s 2021 Successful High School Transitions bill allows students in internships to count as full-time learners; Delaware’s Colonial School District fosters interdisciplinary collaboration through interconnected career pathways; and Indiana is redesigning its diploma to combine core academics with two years of pathway-specific learning and work-based experience. In North Carolina, Guilford County Schools’ Signature Career Academies are preparing students for rapidly growing fields like AI and biotechnology. 

As these and other efforts to create new college and career pathways continue to grow, real progress will hinge on learning from what works, addressing persistent gaps, and ensuring every student has a structured path to postsecondary success.

Still Worth It? Scanning the Post-COVID Challenges and Possibilities for Access to Colleges and Careers in the US (Part 1)

How have the pathways into higher education and the workforce changed in the US since the school closures of the COVID-19 pandemic? In the first part of this two-part post, RJ Wicks scans recent news and research to summarize some of the current conditions students in the US face as they try to find their way into adulthood. The second post explores some of the “micro-innovations” that educators are developing to help eliminate some of the barriers that limit access to learning opportunities and good jobs after high school. These posts are part of IEN’s ongoing coverage of what is and is not changing in schools and education following the school closures of the pandemic. For more on the series, see “What can change in schools after the pandemic?”  For examples of micro-innovations in other areas see IEN’s coverage of the emergence of tutoring programs after the school closures: Tutoring takes off and Predictable challenges and possibilities for effective tutoring at scale.

Despite the continuing hope that college can be a gateway to economic mobility, the COVID-19 pandemic contributed to the already considerable challenges that many students face in getting into college and finding their way into the workforce. Illustrating the depths of the problem around the world, OECD’s analysis of survey responses from 690,000 15- and 16-year-old students from more than 80 countries concluded that “students are now expressing very high levels of career uncertainty and confusion. Job expectations have changed little since 2000 and bear little relationship to actual patterns of labour market demand.”

The report, comparing survey results from each of the PISA assessments shows that almost 40% of the students participating in the survey in 2022 are “career uncertain,” up from about 12% in 2000. In addition, almost 50% of all participates agreed or strongly agreed with the statement that “school has done little to prepare me for adult life” and almost 25% agreeing that “school has been a waste of time.” 

A graph with purple bars

AI-generated content may be incorrect.
% of 15–16 year-old students classified as “career uncertain” by year of PISA assessment
The State of Global Teenage Career Preparation, OECD
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AI-generated content may be incorrect.
Concerns reported by 15-16 year-old students on the 2022 PISA assessment
The State of Global Teenage Career Preparation, OECD

In the US, concerns about getting in to the workforce combine with challenges that can limit access to college and other post-secondary options. Although recent enrollments in college in the US have begun to increase again, students’ opportunities remain restricted by growing financial barriers, expanding inequities, and a lack of alignment between what students learn in school and what the workforce demands. Additionally, a lack of career pathways for students who may not pursue traditional four-year degrees, limited information about the existing possibilities, and lack of personalized support make it particularly difficult for first-generation college students and other historically disadvantaged groups to navigate both conventional and new post-secondary opportunities. Addressing any of these challenges is likely to get even more difficult in a context where some now question the value of a college education and where the current US administration has attacked many institutions of higher education and the funding streams that support them.

Enrollment dropped—especially at community colleges—though enrollment rates appear to be rising again
Between 2019 and 2021, undergraduate enrollment in the US fell by nearly 1 million students, the largest two-year decrease in more than 50 years. As Doug Shapiro, from National Student Clearinghouse explained in 2022, “enrollment in undergraduate and graduate programs has been trending downward since around 2012, but the pandemic turbocharged the declines at the undergrad level.”

In community colleges, in particular, 90% of those responding to a national survey reported enrollment declines in the first year of the pandemic, with 50% reporting declines of more than 10%. Those declines at community colleges continued, amounting to about a 13% enrollment drop over the course of the pandemic.  By 2022, entry into two-year colleges was more than 20% lower than it was before the pandemic, with larger drops in Black- and Hispanic-majority colleges. In contrast, entry into four-year colleges declined by about 6%. 

Sparking some hope that the enrollment declines are only temporary, more recent figures show that enrollments have begun to rise again. Fall enrollments in 2024 grew by almost 5% in comparison to fall 2023 and slightly exceeded fall enrollments in 2019 before the pandemic began.  Enrollment gains were particularly strong in associate programs (up 6.3 percent), bachelor’s programs (up 2.9 percent), master’s programs (up 3.3 percent), and doctoral programs (up 2.0 percent).

College is unaffordable for most low-income students

The recent rise in college enrollments provides some hope that more students will take advantage of post-secondary education, but access to college remains limited by substantial financial barriers, particularly for students from historically disadvantaged communities. The average federal student loan debt in the U.S. is approximately $37,850, contributing to a national student loan debt total exceeding $1.6 trillion. This substantial debt burden influences life choices, with one-third of borrowers indicating it has impacted their ability to continue education, and 14% reporting it has affected decisions such as starting a family. Such financial constraints force many students to forgo higher education or work excessive hours, diminishing their focus on academic and career readiness.

Beyond tuition, textbooks, transportation, housing, and emergency expenses often make higher education inaccessible, even with financial aid. The National College Attainment Network (NCAN) defines an institution as affordable if its total cost —including tuition, fees, and $300 for emergency expenses — can be covered by the sum of grants, loans, Federal Work Study, a proxy for expected family contribution (EFC), and estimated summer wages. When the cost exceeds these combined resources, there is an “affordability gap.” 

According to the National College Attainment Network (NCAN) Affordability Report:

  • Only 12 states had affordable public four-year institutions in 2024.
  • In only 10 states were more than 50% of public BA programs affordable (AK, AR, FL, IL, ME, NM, OK, WA, WV, and WY)
  • On average, community colleges were unaffordable in 28 states, and four states had no affordable community colleges (HI, NH, RI, and UT)
  • All community colleges were affordable in only three states (IN, ME, VT) and at least 75% of community colleges were affordable in only ten states.

Equity gaps continue to shape enrollment and completion of higher education

Students from higher-income families remain significantly more likely to attend college. Reflecting the challenges for those from lower-income backgrounds, as the Institute for Higher Education Policy puts it:  “Students with unmet need take out more loans, work more hours, face higher degrees of food and housing insecurity, and are at greater risk of forgoing higher education or leaving school without a credential.” 

Furthermore, students from the lowest-income backgrounds would need to contribute almost 150% of their household income to cover the full-time cost of a four-year college, even after accounting for grant and scholarship aid.  As one illustration of the disproportionate financial burden on low-income families, the share of household income required to pay for college increases dramatically from the highest- to the lowest-income households.

Illustrating the depth of the equity issues, first-generation college students, English learners, and students with disabilities face barriers that make it much more likely that they will drop out before getting a degree. Nationally, 89 percent of low-income first-generation students leave college within six years without a degree. More than a quarter leave after their first year — four times the dropout rate of higher-income second-generation students. Furthermore, the six-year graduation rate of students with disabilities at four-year colleges is 49.5%, compared to roughly 68% for students without disabilities. 

Students are unprepared for college and careers

Contributing to the enrollment challenges, high school curricula often fail to align with postsecondary expectations, resulting in high rates of remedial courses particularly for students of color:

  •  According to New America and the National Postsecondary Student Aid Study (NPSAS) 2020 Undergraduate data (NPSAS:20), 40% of students attending a public 2-year college and one-quarter of students from public 4-year colleges took a remedial course at some point.
  • Students of color and low-income students continue to be placed into remedial courses at higher rates than their more advantaged peers, and almost half of Black and Latinx students attending public 2-year colleges, and 30% at 4-year institutions have enrolled in at least one remedial course.

The focus on four-year college degrees also overlooks the value of Career and Technical Education (CTE) and other pathways that align with workforce needs.

Black and Hispanic learners also tend to be overrepresented in service-oriented professions such as health sciences or education and training; these professions tend to have lower wages, in contrast to higher wage STEM fields where they are underrepresented.

Next Week: New Pathways into Higher Education and the Working World? Scanning the Post-COVID Challenges and Possibilities for Access to Colleges and Careers in the US (Part 2)